Identifying and explaining cognitive warfare drivers affecting command and control systems in future battles

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Ph.D. graduate in Foresight from Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, and lecturer at Khatam al-Anbiya Air Defense University, Tehran, Iran.

2 Associate Professor and Faculty Member, Command and Staff University of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, Tehran, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor and Faculty Member,, Command and Staff University of the Islamic Republic of Iran Army, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Cognitive warfare, as one of the most important aspects of future battles, has transformed the nature of command and control systems and, by utilizing new technologies, affects decision-making processes and human perception. The present study was conducted with the aim of identifying and explaining the drivers of cognitive warfare that are effective on command and control systems in future battles. The research method was a combination of documentary, library studies, and expert meetings, during which 80 key factors related to cognitive warfare were identified through a systematic review.Then, these factors were examined using the expert opinions of 21 experts and experts in the field of military and futures studies and finally categorized into 12 main drivers and prioritized using the fuzzy CODAS method and determining seven criteria for evaluating the final drivers. The results showed that "cognitive warfare based on person-to-person cyber interactions" ranked first with a score of 0.60, followed by "cognitive warfare based on moral and psychological simulations" and "using collective intelligence in cognitive warfare decision-making" in second and third places, respectively. Also, drivers such as "command systems based on quantum processing" and "combining cognitive warfare with biometric data" ranked lower in the table.The findings of this study showed that emerging technologies, especially artificial intelligence, blockchain, and quantum processing, will play a decisive role in the future of cognitive warfare and command and control systems. These results can help policymakers and military commanders adopt new strategies to counter and exploit cognitive warfare on the battlefield of the future.

Keywords

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References

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Military Psychology
Volume 16, Issue 2 - Serial Number 62
Summer Quarterly
November 2025
Pages 83-113

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History

  • Receive Date: 27 March 2025
  • Revise Date: 17 August 2025
  • Accept Date: 12 November 2025

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